API reference

Fertiliser Price API

Seven read-only Intelligence Hub endpoints for UK fertiliser estimates, price series, market facts and public scoring. No key and no login.

7
Endpoints: None
Authentication: JSON
Formats: Not asserted
Licence

Quick start

Every endpoint is a plain GET over HTTPS. Nothing to sign up for, and no header is required. This returns today's estimate for all nine grades.

Try it

curl https://intelligence.tilth.uk/api/v1/fertiliser

Response shape

[
  {
    "product": "AN_UK",
    "estimate_gbp_t": 436.5,
    "band_low_gbp_t": 420.88,
    "band_high_gbp_t": 452.11,
    "as_of": "2026-07-23",
    "method": "modelled",
    "within_gbp_t": 6.25,
    "hit_rate_n_of_10": 8,
    "scored_prints": 10,
    "signal_stage": "early"
  }
]

Endpoints

Absolute paths against the branded Intelligence Hub origin above. All seven accept GET only.

GET

/api/v1/fertiliser

The current estimate for every tracked grade, returned as one JSON array.

Parameters

No parameters.

Example

https://intelligence.tilth.uk/api/v1/fertiliser

GET

/api/v1/fertiliser/series

The published price series for one grade, newest first, returned as a JSON array.

Parameters

productrequired: Which grade to return the published series for.
cadenceoptional: Choose weekly or monthly. Weekly is the default.

Example

https://intelligence.tilth.uk/api/v1/fertiliser/series?product=AN_UK&cadence=weekly

GET

/api/v1/fertiliser/estimates/history

The daily estimate history for one grade, newest first, capped at 400 points and returned as a JSON array.

Parameters

productrequired: Which grade to return the estimate history for.
cadenceoptional: Accepted for compatibility and ignored because this operation always returns the daily estimate line.

Example

https://intelligence.tilth.uk/api/v1/fertiliser/estimates/history?product=UREA_GRANULAR

GET

/api/v1/fertiliser/narrative

Ranked market facts for one grade, ordered for concise human or agent consumption.

Parameters

productrequired: Which grade to explain.

Example

https://intelligence.tilth.uk/api/v1/fertiliser/narrative?product=AN_UK

GET

/api/v1/fertiliser/overview

The market-wide weekly aggregate across tracked grades.

Parameters

No parameters.

Example

https://intelligence.tilth.uk/api/v1/fertiliser/overview

GET

/api/v1/fertiliser/divergence

The public forward-error scoring record, optionally narrowed by grade and time window.

Parameters

productoptional: Narrow the scoring record to one grade.
daysoptional: Limit the scoring window to this many recent days.

Example

https://intelligence.tilth.uk/api/v1/fertiliser/divergence?product=AN_UK&days=365

GET

/api/v1/fertiliser/official-index-comparison

The daily forecast rebased against the official DEFRA agricultural price index for one nutrient family, so you can see how the estimate tracks the official series.

Parameters

productrequired: Which grade to build the overlay for.

Example

https://intelligence.tilth.uk/api/v1/fertiliser/official-index-comparison?product=DAP

Current estimate array

The current operation returns an array directly. Every entry carries the estimate, confidence band, method and available scoring record.

Field	Meaning
product	The grade code, one of the nine listed below.
estimate_gbp_t	The modelled price in pounds per tonne.
band_low_gbp_t	The lower bound of the uncertainty band.
band_high_gbp_t	The upper bound of the uncertainty band.
as_of	The day this estimate is for.
method	How the point was produced: modelled, or flat_carry when the driver data was unavailable.
within_gbp_t	Recent accuracy, the typical gap in pounds per tonne between the estimate and the settled price.
hit_rate_n_of_10	How many of the scored estimates landed inside the band. A count, not a rate: read it over scored_prints.
scored_prints	The denominator for hit_rate_n_of_10: how many settled prints the count was measured over, at most ten.
signal_stage	How far the underlying driver is through validation.

Estimate history array

The history operation also returns an array directly. Every entry is one dated estimate for the requested grade.

Field	Meaning
product	The grade code, one of the nine listed below.
date	The date this historical estimate is for.
estimate_gbp_t	The modelled price in pounds per tonne.
band_low_gbp_t	The lower bound of the uncertainty band.
band_high_gbp_t	The upper bound of the uncertainty band.
method	How the point was produced: modelled, or flat_carry when the driver data was unavailable.
signal_stage	How far the underlying driver is through validation.

Product codes

Pass one of these as the product parameter. See the machine-readable contract for each operation's handling of unknown codes.

Code	Grade
AN_UK	Ammonium Nitrate
UREA_GRANULAR	Granular Urea
DAP	DAP
MOP	Muriate of Potash
AN_IMPORT	Ammonium Nitrate (Imported)
UAN	UAN
TSP	Triple Superphosphate
POLYSULPHATE	Polysulphate
NITRATE_SULPHUR	Nitrate Sulphur

Errors

Failures can return the status codes below. Throttle and timeout responses return JSON with code and message; a 429 response also includes Retry-After. Cache responses and pace calls rather than polling in a loop.

Status	When it happens
400	A required query parameter is missing or invalid.
429	The public request rate or concurrency limit was reached. The JSON code is ERR_HUB_THROTTLED and the message is "Too many requests. This API is free and keyless; please pace your calls." Read Retry-After: 60 seconds for a request budget or 1 second when all public request slots are in use, then retry after that delay.
500	The Intelligence Hub could not read the requested dataset. Retry shortly.
503	The public request exceeded the Hub timeout. The JSON code is ERR_HUB_INTERNAL and the message is "The Intelligence Hub could not complete this request". Retry shortly.

Machine-readable contract

The OpenAPI 3.1 document describes every endpoint, parameter and response on this page. Point a client generator at it rather than hand-writing types.

https://intelligence.tilth.uk/openapi.jsonOpen the OpenAPI document

Use Tilth from an AI agent

Tilth also runs a Model Context Protocol server, so an agent can call the index directly as a tool instead of you wiring up the HTTP calls above by hand.

MCP endpoint

https://www.tilth.uk/mcp

Discovery document

https://www.tilth.uk/.well-known/mcp.json

Client config

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "tilth": {
      "url": "https://www.tilth.uk/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Tools

The server exposes six tools. Five are read-only; the sixth needs the user's explicit consent before it does anything.

list_products: Lists the nine fertiliser grades the index tracks, with their product codes.
get_fertiliser_price: Returns the current price estimate for one grade, with its confidence band.
get_price_history: Returns the daily price history for one grade, newest first.
compare_forecast_to_defra: Rebases the forecast against the official DEFRA Agricultural Price Index for one grade.
compare_quote_to_index: Compares a quoted price per tonne against the current index estimate for one grade.
subscribe_price_alert: Consent-gated: subscribes an email to a price alert only once the user has clearly agreed to it. Tilth sends a confirmation link first, and the alert activates only when the user clicks it.

Licence

The Intelligence Hub contract does not currently assert a licence. Source licence metadata is informational and does not define terms for the public API.

How the numbers are made

This page documents the interface. The methodology, the sources behind each grade and the validation record are set out on the data page.

Read the methodology